Peaking in 2015: Technology options

If the world does decide, other factors notwithstanding, that it has to go for the 2015 peak, one can foresee drastic measures being introduced to cut carbon emissions and scale up low-carbon energy.

Some countries might put a moratorium on coal fired power stations. Others might offer much greater subsides for wind and solar power. Carbon taxes could be introduced, ramping up fuel prices. Huge grants and discounts might be offered on insulation, double glazing and all other ways of increasing energy efficiency. Nuclear plants may be accelerated – although their long lead times might mean countries having to overdraw their carbon allowances until closer to 2020. Carbon capture and storage – the technology that enables CO2 to be piped underground virtually eliminating emissions from power stations and factories - may be accelerated.

While many low or no-carbon options exist for power, transport presents major challenges. Hybrid cars that run partly on electricity can help reduce emissions to a degree, but all alternative fuels have their own challenges. Hydrogen-powered vehicles appear decades away due to the costs and practical difficulties of manufacturing hydrogen sustainably and storing it in vehicles in sufficient quantities. The biofuels in use today raise a series of issues. They tend to be blended into gasoline or diesel in low proportions, typically 5 or 10% and so make little dent on emissions. But at the same time, they use food crops such as corn and wheat and have been seen as a cause of rising food prices. 

Indeed it seems to many that the main function of today’s biofuels is not environmental at all, but to shift US fuel revenues from the Middle East to the mid-West. However the picture could change dramatically with the advent of next generation biofuels – such as those made from woody crops in which the whole plant is used. If these can be made economically, they hold out the promise of fuels that do not use food crops, have much higher energy content, can be blended in high proportions and avert large volumes of emissions. There are also likely to be large-scale reforestation programmes and other actions to restore nature’s carbon sinks.