The moment of truth has arrived. Today will reveal whether the world will be able to 'Seal the deal' on climate change in Copenhagen. After two years of negotiations, now is the time we will see how serious our leaders are in addressing the greatest crisis facing humanity and our natural world: climate change.
193 nations will be at the table. 115 Heads of State will be there, carrying the hopes of their people for a fair, ambitious and binding (FAB) agreement.
Will today result in a deal that sets the world on course for survival? 102 countries- one half of the UN's member states - are calling for global temperature rise not to exceed 1.5 degrees Celcius, or 350 ppm of CO2 in the atmosphere, to ensure their survival.
The stakes could not possibly be higher. Will the deal set the foundation for such a future? Or will it lead to 'greenwash'? The UN warns that targets on the table are way below what is needed to stay below 2 degrees C of warming, let alone 1.5 degrees C.
Scientists warn that if trends continue we are facing an unimaginable 6 degrees C of warming by 2100. If heads of state under-achieve, they will seek to dress failure up as success. Will we be able to tell the difference?
Worse still, will Copenhagen end in collapse?
We do not know which of these three scenarios - foundation, greenwash or collapse - is in store for us by the end of the day. Let us hope that wisdom, compassion and courage prevail. Not only for our sake, but for the sake of all those who will come after us...
CSM is tracking the negotiations through daily editions of India Climate Watch from Copenhagen. The latest version is provided below. Please visit our Portal on India and climate change for further details - and a glossary of terms to decode UN climate jargon!
INDIA CLIMATE WATCH
Brought to you daily from Copenhagen by CSM
Day 11 - Thursday 17 Dec 2009
Headline News
· Almost two days lost over procedural wrangling. Heads of State now arriving but no text for them to consider. Negotiators not been able to deliver a text due to persistent divergences and suspicions over which text would go forward. 'Politicans talk, leaders lead.' Now political leaders need to rise above procedural politics and be ready to take hard decisions.
· Danish Presidency finally brings clarity on way forward. Connie Hedegaard appointed to chair work under two separate tracks - Kyoto Protocol (KP) and Long-term Cooperative Action (LCA) . No text other than Chairs' texts to be used for negotiations (i.e. no Danish/ BASIC/ other text to be used). Negotiations finally resume under these two tracks with KP starting first, followed by LCA - as forcefully insisted on by G77/ China for past two days. A victory for the G77.
· US Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton, arrives in Copenhagen with surprise announcement: US will contribute to mobilizing a global fund of USD 100 billion a year by 2020 for poor and vulnerable countries on condition that major economies take meaningful mitigation actions and agree to full transparency. This could be the deadlock-breaker.
· China added further excitement by a significant announcement designed to address key US red line on 'transparency' of mitigation efforts. Vice foreign affairs minister, Hu Fei, said China would enhance and improve national communications on carbon emissions to improve transparency - including considering submitting reports for international review.
· PM Manmohan Singh leaves for Copenhagen. Says India willing to do more, and 'looks forward to constructive talks'. Jairam Ramesh has talks with Hillary Clinton; says they agree 75% on 4-point agenda for transparency, 25% disagreement remains.
· French show leadership role: President Sarkozy makes impassioned, workmanlike speech - issues call for Heads to work throughout the night to ensure a deal is ready for tomorrow. Asks to keep historical responsibility, Kyoto and a six month deadline for a legal text. Says France and EU ready to negotiate and will stand by Africa and vulnerable nations.
· Malaysian Prime Minister announces voluntary reduction of emissions intensity by 40% by 2020, conditional on finance and technology transfer. Several other Heads of Stats from Malta to Trinidad & Tobago confirm their desire to adopt low-carbon growth plans and make every effort to combating climate change. There appears to be no lack of political will on public record.
· International campaigning organisation, Avaaz, issues petitions from the 'global south' to China to show leadership, and calls on India to accept a global peak on emissions and a minimum of 2 degrees C of temperature rise so as not to be a deal-breaker at Copenhagen.
· Leaked UNFCCC report adds sobering note to end of the day by confirming what many feared, that Annex 1 targets on the table would lead to a 3 degree temperature rise and CO2 concentrations of 550ppm by 2100. Far far above the 1.5 degrees/ 350 ppm that island nations and 102 UN member states - though not India and major powers - are calling for to ensure their survival.
The inadequacy of ambition coupled with the gravity of failure makes the necessity of success indisputable.
Click here for the full Daily Update from Thursday 17th December on the state of the negotiations and the role of the government of India.
For more on CSM's award-winning "Climate Challenge India campaign please see: www.climatechallengeindia.org