Monday Dec. 7th. 2009
There is a real excitement in the air, with some 20 thousand people turning up from every corner of the world and a party atmosphere in the streets. The talk, however, is all climate:
1. Nick Stern in a speech a couple of nights ago talked of the stark choice we face between acting fast or sliding into disaster, and thus how important this Conference was to the future of the planet. Lord Giddens talked of the Copenhagen Conference being, with the sense of pressure for a global agreement and over 100 heads of States turning up, the first real gathering for global governance: an historic event.
2. More practically, Q-Cells, one of the world's largest photovoltaic solar companies, claims that solar cells have reached grid price parity in key markets, such as Italy and Germany. That means that solar cells are price comparable with fossil fuel energy (gas in Italy's case) coal and gas for Germany. Big news! Why would you still build coal, let alone high-emission-potency gas?
3. According to the International Energy Authority, 77% of the energy infrastructure that will exist in the world 2050 has not been built. So we have an extraordinary chance to make sure it's infrastructure for a low-carbon, not a high-carbon, economy.
4. Denmark's ATP pension fund, one of the largest in the world, announced that they're setting up
ATP will set up a € 1 billion '/Institutional Investor Climate Change Action Fund for Emerging Economies/'. The aim is for the Fund to become a joint initiative involving several like-minded institutional investors. The Fund will operate on private sector conditions and only invest in projects that are expected to deliver relevant risk-adjusted rewards.
Thursday Dec. 10th. 2009
Nine Snippets:
> Amazing scenes in the negotiator's Plenary today, with Tuvalu rep arguing and China resisting - both politely but in a very determined way - that a treaty has to limit global temperature increases to 1.5 degrees and to reduce CO2 in the atmosphere to 350ppm. No resolution yet.??
> You may have seen news of "leaked Danish PM text" suggesting rich nations sort out climate change via the World Bank rather than the UN and pretty well tell developing nations what to do; quite a controversy at COP, as you can imagine. Gossip here is that a Danish Cabinet Minister colleague leaked it; seems the PM has been pushing it against lots of opposition, and the opposition hasn't given up.
> Hot news: Indonesia announced it's proposing a feed-in tariff for geo-thermal energy. Apparently they have 40% of the world's hot rock resources! See http://tinyurl.com/y9pm6t6?
> Russia announced it would cut emissions by 25% by 2020 (from 1990 levels) if other countries agreed to do the same; they had been saying 10-15%; the EU is saying "we convinced them". EBRD at a seminar today explained that Russia's energy intensity is incredibly bad; they have enormous potential to cut emissions from energy efficiency measures. Hopefully the high returns will entice energy efficiency investors despite political and crime risks. EBRD aims to help de-risk.
> Outlook for a "good" Copenhagen Agreement seems to be improving. Insiders are saying that having so many world leaders (more than 100) turning up, and Obama now coming for the end of the Conference, is forcing a better outcome.??
> Also helping was the US EPA announcement this week to formally classify CO2 as a pollutant. That allows Obama to regulate CO2 without Congress - it dramatically increases his ability to deliver at least the cuts he's promising.??
> The Saudi Arabian representative was being obstructive again this week; at one point he made a speech about the implications of the East Anglia Uni email leaks and how they raised doubts about global warming science. Apparently the speech was met with silence; no other country followed up. Would've been different under Bush.??
> The Conference is quite a buzz; 15,000 people talking non-stop in the conference centre. Thousands of laptops, lots of coffee, chanting anti-REDD demonstrators in the background. The cloak room is open 18 hours a day this week; it advertises that next week, as negotiations come to then end, it will be open 24 hours a day.
> Had a talk with a couple of big EU pension funds this week to see if they'd join Danish ATP pension fund's new €1 billion 'Climate Change Action Fund for Emerging Economies', reported earlier this week. They think they tackle the issue of investing better by building in relevant criteria across all their asset classes - i.e. in the whole fund. The €1 billion, they think, puts it into a sideline rather than mainstreaming the idea.
Sunday Dec. 12th. 2009
> Did you see yesterday's spat between the US and China: US negotiator Todd Stern "says no way US public money is going to go to China"- an expected domestic political position, eyes averted from the fact that once the US has a cap and trade scheme millions of private money will be buying carbon credits from Chinese clean energy projects. China then says it's "shocked" at the comments, and that developed countries had a legal and moral obligation to deliver, based on their history of high emissions. Earth remembering that two days ago China was wrongfooted by Tuvalu, leading to headlines about a split in the G77. Nothing like pushing attention back on a common enemy to try and get the troops back in line.
> HSBC's Nick Robins at last night's Carbon Disclosure Project panel: HSBC Nick R: "The market for low carbon services is now around $530 billion a year. By 2020 it will be $2 trillion a year. This is a big, exciting opportunity for people to get into, now."
> Wandered around the main, vast, negotiating hall yesterday with two friends, taking pictures of the hallowed ground where an agreement to avert disaster (we hope) is being worked out. Countries sit in strictly alphabetical order; the US is way up the back, very noticeable because its sign is in white, while every other one you can see is in black. They're the odd ones out because they haven't ratified the Kyoto Protocol; nice.
> Even the tiny hilltop cafe town of San Marino has a seat, albeit observer. Look it up on Wikipedia. But of course Taiwan was nowhere to be seen.
> Bonds gossip:
- Last week's green bond issue by SEB for the World Bank sold very quickly; it was their third. Expect a fourth tranche in quick time.
- RE manager for a major London-based bank told me, in the corridor, that they were working on a green bonds issue for renewable energy, which would make it asset-backed. Couldn't provide issuer details - yet. Perhaps we're seeing the beginning of a green debt capital market?
> Stockholm Environment Institute briefing: a 2°C target only gives us a 50/50 chance of avoiding runaway climate change; target needs to be 1.5°C and no more than 350ppm. Tough stuff in the context of what the negotiators are looking at, and supports Tuvalu's proposal a few days ago. What was especially interesting about this was that the session was presented by Sweden in its capacity as EU president. Hopefully this is getting through to the EU negotiating team. See research article at http://tinyurl.com/msapes
> Interesting aside about their improved understanding of biodiversity inter-connectedeness: if Amazon basin forests dry out to savannah, as many models forecast for 3°+, it triggers an extra 3° warming in northern China to Mongolia, and a 2° cooling in North Africa. Buy real estate in Algiers as a hedge?
> At an meeting today of Public Finance agencies around the world working on climate, the UK Carbon Trust presented a great story about technology transfer. I'd heard the bones before, but it was pointed when explained in the milieu of slow-moving public finance agencies. Last year they were approached by China Energy Conservation Investment Corporation, who wanted to set up a joint venture. They've set up a £10 million pound venture capital fund. One of the first investments was in a small UK company that had developed a low-energy, money and emission saving air-conditioning solution for mobile phone towers. These typically rely on high-emission diesel-fuel generated air-conditioners. The company was selling into the UK market, which has 20,000 mobile phone towers. China is building 600,000 in the coming year; they now have contracts to roll out a good chunk of those. That's technology transfer!
> At that same session the Mexico Energy Ministry person told of research they'd done into how to encourage bicycle use. It showed that the main driver for Mexican men using bicycles was the number of women using bicycles. They're still trying to figure out what to do with the results.
Tuesday Dec. 15
> Monday morning. The world turned up today: it took me an hour's queuing in the 1 degree cold to get to the front door of the Conference Centre with my precious pass; thousands are stuck outside just trying to register. When I get inside I'm told the winding queue for new registrations was measured at 4 kms long. You read that right. 40,000 people have now tried to register to attend the conference's final days. On Friday, when 100+ heads of state turn up with their entourages, only 90 NGO people of the 25,000 here will be able to get in.
> Tuesday morning it starts snowing, as the flashing sign says to the thousands waiting "expect a 5 hour wait to register for the conference". A 5 hour wait outdoors that is.
> Connie Hedegaard, Danish Minister of Climate Change and Chair of the Conference, briefs NGOs, telling them to 'keep up the pressure’. She insisted that now is the time for a deal, that science and everything else is available, over 100 heads of states will be here, there will not be another chance. Postponing will not help but rather complicate so the pressure from civil society must absolutely remain firm.
> She also says "Finance is crucial, long term decisions are needed, a number of ministers are carrying out consultations on financial issues. A levy on financial transactions probably can’t be designed and agreed this week but one on aviation and shipping could." Whoa, that would be big news!
> 11.37 am Monday - rumour reaches me that the African Group G77 has walked out of the "contact talks" this morning. The pace is quickening. Tuesday mormning it's India and China that are supposed to have walked out. Best place to figure out what's going on is the BBC rather than here.
> At Carbon Disclosure Project session "CDP is working with a number of govermments on mandatory disclosure proposals. We're encouraging governments to talk with each other so they can have a harmonised regulations." Indian ex-Minister Suresh Prabhu: "can't we have an integrated financial system that includes carbon disclosure? Mandated? Baselines, MRV and standards need to be fully integrated."
> One friend responded to the snippet about research into how to promote bicycle use in Mexican by suggesting Mexico consider subsidies for bike purchases by women. I will ask my contact to pass it on!
> According to Danish pumps company Grundfos, pumps consume 20% of all electrical energy generated around the world. Apparently they are in more places than you can imagine.
Wednesday Dec. 16
> Gossip: the World Bank has just increased the recent green bonds issue by $50 million, because the Dec 4 release sold so quickly.
> Very strong statement put out this week in Copenhagen by "Action by Business on Climate", coalition of WWF, Cambridge Leaders Group, CERES, Climate Group etc, representing 1,000 big businesses. The statement denies that big business would prefer caution and the status quo - and instead advocating a strong Copenhagen deal; and asking if businesses can do it, then why can't world leaders? They want a legally binding deal that reduces carbon pollution and accelerates clean energy innovation. They want a clear signal that allows businesses to make long term investment decisions in low carbon technologies; Provides incentives to invest heavily in low carbon R&D, and; Protects economies from dramatic impacts of climate change.
Timely contribution. Tell your friends!
> Coral prediction by Stockholm Environment Institute: they're Ok at present, with a 1°C temp rise. At 2° seaweed dominates corals (no good for snorkelling any more, apart from all the ecosystem problems). At 3° temp increases corals die.
> COP15 Trivia (thanks to RePower America)
- Countries represented: 192
- Heads of state that have announced they will attend next week: 110
- Accredited attendees: 23,000 before they stopped accepting people
- Size of Brazilian Govt delegation: 600 (what are they all doing?)
- Fraction of food served at COP15 that is organic: 66%
> "If we don't deal with climate change decisively, "what we're talking about then is extended world war." – Sir Nicholas Stern.
> The UK defence think tank the Royal United Services Institute recently reported that climate change threatens to spark conflicts of a similar magnitude of both World Wars – only this time they will be waged for centuries.
> 36% of people in CPH commute to work on a bicycle - in all weathers. And we're talking about some cold weather. A friend reminiscences about when Shanghai was bike-filled. Maybe when they become as rich as the Danish are they'll get back to bicycling?