Folks,
This morning WWF International finally released the '
Climate Solutions
II' Report, prepared by Climate Risk Ltd.
As you know, the report models the global growth rates needed for
low-carbon industries if we're to avoid climate tipping points. In
particular it shows that we can't afford the current approach of
starting with the least-cost mitigation solutions and working our way
forward to higher cost solutions as a carbon price gets to a reasonable
level.
The modelling suggest we are at a fork in the road: to be able to have a
reasonable chance of avoiding tipping points we need the whole range of
low-carbon industries to have shifted into high growth phases (25-30%
p.a., averaged globally) by 2014. If we don't take this road we will be
looking at run-away climate change and the severe economic (and other!)
contraction that will come with that.
The timeframe to ramp up low-carbon industries is such that any carbon
price improvement from and end-2010 signed Copenhagen agreement is not
going to help; it will take some years for stronger price signals to
have an appreciable impact on the growth of low-carbon industries,
compounded by the fact that strong price signals are not likely to come
out of the US for some time.
According to the modelling in the report, to move at scale and at speed
to become a low-carbon economy will require investment inflows of
roughly a trillion dollars a year, at least for the next decade.
See below for the media release; attached for the Exec Summary; and you
can download the full report at
http://www.panda.org/about_our_earth/all_publications/?177101/climate-change-global-warming-industry-solution-wwf
The report provides the macro argument for speed and for scale of action
that leads into discussions of the need for larger-scale,
policy-engineered solutions than have been considered to date. Those
solutions are being canvassed in the Climate Bonds paper you've already
seen in draft form, due out next month.