It’s a fact of life that, being British, we have a genetic predisposition to dwell on the weather… at last, we might be justified. As the London transport system seemingly iced over, the Tomorrow’s Global Talent team were not alone on that fateful Monday as virtually all planned events were scrapped and most of the city gave up any attempt to conduct a normal day’s business. The UK has just survived the heaviest snowfall for 18 years… what a conversation starter!
“Can you believe this weather? So much for global warming!!”
When the IPCC’s latest report warns us that “warming of the climate is unequivocal”, how can it be that we are shivering our way through a winter with temperatures 1 degree colder than the December/January average? Can the polar ice caps really be melting while ice builds to dangerous levels across the British road network?
With the evidence seemingly (snow)piling up against them, you’ve got to feel sorry for the humble climate modeller. As Science Progress article ‘Predicting the Unpredictable’ puts it, “Here’s someone whose contributions are chronically underappreciated, whose methodology is under constant scrutiny and, worse, whose findings are often questioned, if not directly undermined”. Personally, I couldn’t even make a reasonable guess at the weather in London next Tuesday, so how anyone begins to estimate what will happen across the entire planet in fifty years time is far beyond my comprehension. When you imagine the number of variables to be considered… and possible combination of those variables… not to mention the possible effects that variations in these variables will have on other variables (are you confused yet?)… when every prediction made on every variable is, when it comes down to it, an educated guess… how can anyone be sure of anything?
Well, I suppose we all know the answer to that is that they can’t be. And unless I missed the write up of progress in the field of time travel, they never will be. But, you know what, I’m glad someone’s taking a stab at it. Even if Michael Crichton and the cynics turn out to be right and we’re all making much too big a deal of this, isn’t it better to be safe than sorry? Hope for the best, prepare for the worst, right?
The truth (if you ask the met office) is that the recent cold snap is down to a change in wind direction from west to east caused by, you guessed it, stratospheric warming. The fundamental distinction that people seem quick to forget is the difference between climate and weather. Weather is variable. Just because the climate is changing, it doesn’t mean that suddenly all weather variability is eradicated. What we have just experienced is an extreme weather event… and the cause? Climate change.