The Black-Scholes model provides an important foundation for mathematicalmodels used for pricing options. Myron Scholes won a Nobel prize for this and related work. It has always been recognised that blindly following models exposes the user to unexpectedrisks since they are often at odds with reality. For some, such modelssymbolise the absurdity of much of modern financial structuring. Nicholas Taleb’s Black Swan theoryrefers to a large impact event beyond the realm of normal expectations, andhas come to represent an event, like the credit crunch, that conventional wisdom said could not happen.A White Swan is different.

This is an Executive Summary report on the “Coal Plants in Transition: An Economic Case Study” prepared by Natural Capitalism Solutions in Colorado. The report makes a strong business case for energy providers to consider transitioning away from coal to a combination of renewable and energy efficiency technologies.  The transition becomes cost effective and quite profitable when combined with revenue streams that result from selling pollution credits (NOx, SO2), carbon credits, water rights, and also fuel savings.       The study specifically considers the Navajo Generating Station as an example. But the report is designed to provide information to utility managers all over the country who are faced with serious economic decisions regarding the future of their coal plants as we enter a carbon and water constrained world.

This Tomorrow’s Company report seeks to understand the link between innovation and the effective management of risk. The price of poor governance has been increasingly evident through the credit crunch and recession. The report in particular considers the relationship between innovation and difference or 'diversity' on the board;  the effectiveness and role of non-executive directors, and the impact of the criteria of independence; the relationship between innovation and risk; and the impact of quality of leadership - 'the tone from the top'. 

The Ubuntu Declaration is the product of the recent Emergency Congress, with Rights and Humanity, the South African Human Rights Commission and Tomorrow's Company. The Declaration sets out a holistic and systemic policy framework for what to do now to protect the world's poorest peoples, how to reform the global financial system, and how to create the conditions for sustainable development and effective growth. It starts by recognising  - as we would describe it - the importance of 'the triple context': that we all need to bring the economic, social and environmental systems into balance. The Ubuntu declaration consciously and clearly argues for the alignment of the development agenda alongside tackling the climate crunch, the credit crunch  and the threat to  biodiversity.   Amongst other things It calls for one third - $750bn - or current world stimulus packages to be focussed to the green agenda: recongising that this will be the most efficient in creating jobs and building a...